TPF beat the bookies 2

lurpak said:
Ok @Danny that’s your 3rd strike. YOU'RE OUT.

You can’t stumble down here late on a Friday night after a few shandys, talking about horses and odds. Infact,
I can tell you a few things.

House always wins.
There is no way to profit overall from punting, you can get lucky sometimes but over a lifetime you lose. I’m not talking about professional poker.

Also, with horses. It’s corubt as f**k. You’re right about odds manipulation but very often the best horses lose, on purpose (over fed on purpose, etc) as they want them to lose the first 10 to get big odds.. that’s why you’ll randomly see a 20/1 obliterate all the favs.
Click to expand...

hahahaha its all pre race :D money is in and out of the market before they even start jogging :D
 
Simon85 said:
I'm still totally confused Danny. You may as well be talking in Japanese or in riddles for alls the sense it making to me lol

Click to expand...


Treat horses or football like a city trader trades gold or company stocks :D Buy cheap and sell high :D

Same principles :D
 
where you are

buying = laying
selling = backing

lay the team at a low price say 3.0 and you back it back at 3.2 and you make the money no matter what the result :D
 
Yeah but you can't sell it? At. Best you can cash in your stake is all. But most near kick off isn't even the value of the stake?
 
you just got to be able to read the markets (like a city trader) not easy but I know enough people that do it as a full time income

have I mastered it... nope... but I make money
 
Hmmm still baffled but city trading and its principals of how it works confuses me anyways I understand buy low sell high but how the f**k it works I don't get.
 
TPF beat the bookies 2
 
Any thoughts any of these tomorrow? Wouldn't fancy all 4? Just throwing em up there to see do ppl think anything of em?
TPF beat the bookies 2
 
TPF beat the bookies 2


have a look at this... I backed at 2.92.... the favourite is now trading at 2.3 so if I was to lay that horse I lock in a profit (£0.53) I was £2 trading but then you green out and no matter what that horse does you have made your money
 
Danny said:
View attachment 30005

have a look at this... I backed at 2.92.... the favourite is now trading at 2.3 so if I was to lay that horse I lock in a profit (£0.53) I was £2 trading but then you green out and no matter what that horse does you have made your money
Click to expand...
I really don't understand how u can cash out more than u paid though? Its Mad to me... Lol but fair play
 
TPF beat the bookies 2
TPF beat the bookies 2


when you get your head in the game the money is there :D not traded much at all since maddy has been born though as yopu need to concentrate a fair bit
 
@Danny

Firstly, horses are the same as dogs from an odds perspective. ie; price can drop due to influx of bets (investment as you see it) like I was saying before, a 10/1 dog or horse start price can end up as a 5/4 at the actual start, and all this happens minutes before the race.

So lads, when you see them nutters in bookies running and putting last minute bets on it's because they've seen the odds drop, which means loads of people are suddenly back it.. which sometimes means its got a good chance of winning.

However this doesn't work with football bets. If leeds is 10/1 to beat city, it will remain that price regardless of who or what bets go on either way.

There is no way to invest in a bet. Simply doesn't work like that, and cashing in or out is far from a stable structure, otherwise it would be simple. Just put £10,000 on over 4 corners, wait till theres 2 and cash out a few hundred profit. It does not work. Bookies isn't stupid.
 
Simon85 said:
I really don't understand how u can cash out more than u paid though? Its Mad to me... Lol but fair play
Click to expand...

I use to gamble a lot when I was younger and my old man pretty much is full time gambler and makes a good living but as @lurpak says the house tends to win...

I can only use betfair smarkets and betdaq now so learning to trade was the only option...

You must have heard about Lay the draw?

Lay the draw then when any team scores you cashout? that basically means that you are laying at a low price then when a team scores the price will bounce up and at that point you are in profit so you baack it back again.

DOing that strategy through the EUros paid for 6 week motorcycle trip round Italy
 
Danny said:
I use to gamble a lot when I was younger and my old man pretty much is full time gambler and makes a good living but as @lurpak says the house tends to win...

I can only use betfair smarkets and betdaq now so learning to trade was the only option...

You must have heard about Lay the draw?

Lay the draw then when any team scores you cashout? that basically means that you are laying at a low price then when a team scores the price will bounce up and at that point you are in profit so you baack it back again.

DOing that strategy through the EUros paid for 6 week motorcycle trip round Italy
Click to expand...

No chance mate, firstly a 0-0 kills that idea already. Also 1 goal doesn't mean a higher cash out.

We had a bet here the other day we only needed one goal when everything else was in and cash in was like pennies.. the bet came in anyway
 
with that plan let's say you need to bet like this

£100 x 1 goal cash out £105

What about late goals when need 2? 1 goal at 80 mins, £100 bet, csh out probably like £30

You have to bet big to win pennies, and all it takes it one 0-0 to make you minus
 
lurpak said:
@Danny

Firstly, horses are the same as dogs from an odds perspective. ie; price can drop due to influx of bets (investment as you see it) like I was saying before, a 10/1 dog or horse start price can end up as a 5/4 at the actual start, and all this happens minutes before the race.

So lads, when you see them nutters in bookies running and putting last minute bets on it's because they've seen the odds drop, which means loads of people are suddenly back it.. which sometimes means its got a good chance of winning.

However this doesn't work with football bets. If leeds is 10/1 to beat city, it will remain that price regardless of who or what bets go on either way.

There is no way to invest in a bet. Simply doesn't work like that, and cashing in or out is far from a stable structure, otherwise it would be simple. Just put £10,000 on over 4 corners, wait till theres 2 and cash out a few hundred profit. It does not work. Bookies isn't stupid.
Click to expand...

forgive me... have a look at arsenal v burnley game

TPF beat the bookies 2


that chart is not a straight line.... so the price has and will continue to move about...
 
lurpak said:
No chance mate, firstly a 0-0 kills that idea already. Also 1 goal doesn't mean a higher cash out.

We had a bet here the other day we only needed one goal when everything else was in and cash in was like pennies.. the bet came in anyway
Click to expand...

yes so you have to pick the games where there will be goals... so early on in competitions etc

cashout the bookies offer is nothing compared to an exchange
 
Danny said:
yes so you have to pick the games where there will be goals... so early on in competitions etc

cashout the bookies offer is nothing compared to an exchange
Click to expand...

"pick the games there will be goals"

Or pick the horse that is gonna win? or the lottery numbers that will come out? lol ur nuts
 
lurpak said:
with that plan let's say you need to bet like this

£100 x 1 goal cash out £105

What about late goals when need 2? 1 goal at 80 mins, £100 bet, csh out probably like £30

You have to bet big to win pennies, and all it takes it one 0-0 to make you minus
Click to expand...

you only need one goal... after that goal has gone in you are out and done... profit made... if you get to half time and no goals close close your position and get out for a small loss
 
Danny said:
you only need one goal... after that goal has gone in you are out and done... profit made... if you get to half time and no goals close close your position and get out for a small loss
Click to expand...

if it's half time and 0-0 your cash out will be about half your stake
 
lurpak said:
"pick the games there will be goals"

Or pick the horse that is gonna win? or the lottery numbers that will come out? lol ur nuts
Click to expand...

hahahahah thats where a gambler is different from a trader... I know f**k all about horses and football I just look for signals on the charts and ladders
 
lurpak said:
It doesn't depend tho. The bookies has you in a weaker position, as theres only 45 left for you to win. I've seen it where they actually offer you about 5% because they KNOW it isn't coming in
Click to expand...

lurpak said:
It doesn't depend tho. The bookies has you in a weaker position, as theres only 45 left for you to win. I've seen it where they actually offer you about 5% because they KNOW it isn't coming in
Click to expand...
you are talking about bookies though.... I am not talking about bookings and mug punting... I am talking about using an exchange
 
Danny said:
hahahahah thats where a gambler is different from a trader... I know f**k all about horses and football I just look for signals on the charts and ladders
Click to expand...

Yeah but you're talking about probabilities. Man city will probably beat Luton town. But if city team all get food poision the probability might drop a bit..

Arsenal probably will beat southhampton right, and the odds reflect that. But they got beat today.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Share this page

Back
Top